The Charisma Factor

While the election of Barak Obama is certainly about many people's dissatisfaction with the way things have been going in this nation, I have been doing some looking into the past and have found something else that may have played a significant role in determining the winner of this year's election. I call it The Charisma Factor.

Since the Presidential election of 1932, a strong case can be made that the most charismatic candidate has won every election (the exceptions being when no candidate was seen as being charismatic in any given election year). Let's look, year by year.

1932 -- With America in the midst of The Great Depression, voters were looking for change. Not only did Franklin Roosevelt promise change, but his personality was far more charismatic than that of President Herbert Hoover. Roosevelt won the election handily.

1936 -- Roosevelt ran for re-election against Alf Landon. Roosevelt was a charismatic figure, and made great use of the fact that many people listened to their radios by giving what became known as his Fireside Chats -- radio addresses directly to the American people. Roosevelt's use of the airwaves with his charismatic public persona helped give him one of the biggest electoral majorities in U.S. Presidential history.

1940 -- Despite facing opposition from many people on principle that no President should serve more than two terms, Roosevelt was again re-nominated, and this time faced a challenge from former fellow-democrat Wendell Wilkie. Wilkie was charismatic in his own right, but with radio still being the primary medium through which most voters experienced connection with Presidential candidates, Wilke was at a disadvantage because his voice was at times described as "gravelly". This is in contrast to the paternalistic sound of Roosevelt's voice to which the voters had become accustomed over the past 8 years. Both candidates were charismatic in their own ways, but the charisma edge in 1940 went to Roosevelt, who won the election.

1944 -- Roosevelt was again re-nominated, and the United States was in the midst of a World War--a war which affected the daily lives of virtually every American. In June, 1944, the U.S. and Allied troops gained a foothold in France against the German Army, and patriotism ruled the day in the U.S., with the people wanting to win the war, not just get out of the war as soon as possible. Through it all, Roosevelt and his charismatic, paternalistic (and now even "grandfatherly") personality had led the nation through difficult economic times, and now through difficulties brought on by world war. Roosevelt's voice still was re-assuring to the people over the radio, and he defeated Republican Thomas Dewey, who was not known for having great public charisma.

1948 -- Harry Truman had ascended to the Presidency upon Roosevelt's death in 1945. The Republicans once again nominated Dewey for the Presidency, but this time he was facing Truman. Dewey was considered to be the overwhelming favorite in the Presidential race, and it is said that his speeches were generally lofty and non-specific when it came to the issues of the day. He gave the impression of being more or less a "well-oiled machine." Truman embarked on a long "whistle-stop" campaign, speaking to people all across the nation from the back of a train. He became known as "Give-em Hell Harry" because he was blunt in his speeches about how he believed that Republican-controlled congress had done nothing to help the nation. People seemed to connect with Truman more and more as election day drew near, and in what has been called one of the greatest upsets in Presidential history, Truman defeated Dewey. The argument can be made that the charismatic effect of plain speaking resonated with the voters more than the well-oiled machine.

1952 -- The Republicans nominated General Dwight Eisenhower, a war-hero who was known for his infectious smile. The democrats nominated Senator Adlai Stevenson, an intellectually deep thinker who often used big words that many people simply did not understand. By far, Eisenhower had more charisma than Stevenson, and Eisenhower ran away with the election.

1956 -- The same two candidates, with their same personalities squared off again in 1956, with the same result.

1960 -- The era of television was beginning. Vice President Richard Nixon was nominated by the Republicans for President, and Senator John Kennedy was nominated by the Democrats. Nixon held the edge in the election until the first-ever televised debate between Presidential candidates. Most people who heard the first debate on the radio said that Nixon won the debate. But people who saw the debate on television gave the debate victory to Kennedy, who simply looked better on television than did Nixon. Kennedy narrowly won the Presidential election, and many people have said that it was the televised debates that made the difference in that election. Kennedy's charismatic personality won out over Nixon's personality.


1964 -- Lyndon Johnson ascended to the Presidency upon the death of Kennedy. Johnson was the Democratic nominee, and he faced-off against Barry Goldwater. Neither candidate was particularly "charismatic", but Johnson had a very persuasive personality. At the same time, many people were still, less than a year after the charismatic Kennedy's assassination, hoping that Johnson would carry on with Kennedy's policies. Johnson won in a major landslide.

1968 -- Republican Richard Nixon faced Democrat Hubert Humphrey. These two candidates probably lacked charisma more than any two candidates that had faced each other to date since the pre-Franklin Roosevelt era. However, Nixon did make a cameo appearance on the popular television show Laugh In, and this little spot showed people that he had at least a little bit of a sense of humor. Nixon narrowly defeated Humphrey in an almost charismaticless election.

1972 -- Nixon was re-nominated, while the Democrats nominated Senator George McGovern. This was another almost charismaticless election, with Nixon winning by a landslide.

1976 -- Gerald Ford ascended to the Presidency upon the resignation of Nixon. The country was in an anti-Washington-Government mood in 1976. The Democratic nominee was a Washington outsider who sported a big smile and appeared to have a down-home, folksy personality--Jimmy Carter. Ford was portrayed by the media as a clumsy person (known for tripping, falling down while descending the ramp from an airplane, or while skiing), and did not possess a charismatic personality in general. In the end, the relatively unknown and untested, but more charismatic Carter narrowly defeated Ford.

1980 -- Carter was re-nominated by the Democrats, despite having suffered through many political storms during his Presidency. The nation was in a recession and its diplomats were being held hostage in Iran. During his term in office, President, Carter spoke on television, telling the people that they and the country were in a "malaise." His mood often seemed negative. The Republicans nominated Ronald Reagan, who promoted optimistic thinking, and who had a very charismatic personality. Reagan won the election handily.

1984 -- The charismatic Reagan was challenged by Democrat and former Vice President Walter Mondale. Mondale's personality was even less charismatic than those of previous Democratic nominees McGovern and Humphrey. Reagan won the election in a landslide.

1988 -- Vice President George Bush was nominated by the Republicans. His personality was nowhere near as charismatic as that of Reagan, but Reagan actively supported Bush's candidacy. In his own ways, Bush had charisma, but suffered in comparison to the charismatically-gifted Reagan. In a sense, Bush was running in part on Reagan's charisma. Bush's opponent was Democrat Michael Dukakis, whose public persona at times made Mondale seem almost Reagainesque. Bush won the election.

1992 -- Bush was renominated, and was thought to be a string favorite to win re-election. But the Democrats nominated former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, a man a generation younger than Bush, whom some compared to Clinton's hero, John Kennedy. Clinton's personality was charismatic, and he played up this personality strength, especially to young voters, by doing things such as appearing and playing his saxophone on the Arsenio Hall Show. Clinton won the election.

1996 -- Clinton was re-nominated by the Democrats, and the Republicans countered by nominating Senator Robert Dole, who probably had the least charismatic public persona of any Republican candidate since Barry Goldwater. Clinton won re-election easily.

2000 -- Vice President Al Gore was nominated for President by the Democrats, while the Republicans nominated Texas Governor George W. Bush, son of the former President. Neither candidate had an overly charismatic public persona, but Gore seemed to many people to be rigid and stiff in public, while Bush was described by many as someone that people would enjoy "having a beer with." Despite finishing behind Gore in the national popular voting, Bush won the majority of electoral college votes.

2004 -- Bush was re-nominated by the Republicans, while the Democrats nominated Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Kerry liked to compare himself with another Senator from his state who ran for (and won) the Presidency--John Kennedy. But Kerry's charisma-factor was nothing like Kennedy's; it was more like Mondale. Bush still had the personality of the kind of person people would enjoy "having a beer with," and won the election.

2008 -- Senator Barak Obama from Illinois was the Democratic nominee, with Senator John McCain from Arizona being the Republican nominee. McCain's personality was no match for the extreme charisma of Obama, who has a knack of uplifting crowds when he speaks. Based on the charisma factor alone, nobody could have beaten Obama this year, any more than anyone could have beaten Reagan in 1984, Eisenhower in 1956, or Roosevelt in 1936.

What will an Obama Presidency bring? We don't know. But unless it is a total failure or something totally unforeseen occurs, he will likely be likely be renominated by the Democrats in 2012. If the Republicans want to have any chance of defeating Obama in 2012, perhaps they should start looking for a candidate who can match Obama's charisma. But Obama is so charismatic, that may not be possible.

Looking at the current crop of potential Republican candidates in 2012 (and knowing that much can happen between now and then that might let other candidates emerge), it seems to me that the Republicans who could best challenge Obama on the Charisma-front would be either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin.