Just past the half-way point in this season, it's time for some historical perspective.
We should all try to remember that as much as 2016 was a magical year for the Cubs in that they finally won the World Series after a 108-year drought, the regular season was pretty special, too. No Cub team in most Cub fans' lifetimes won as many games as did the 2016 Cubs. So just for a moment, let's take the 2016 season out of the mix.
In 2014, after 82 games, the Cubs were in last place in their division, 13.5 games out of first place.
In 2015, after 83 games (game numbers 82 and 83 were part of a double header, so I'm using the end of the day standings), the Cubs were in third place, 7.5 games out of first in their division.
And in 2015 at that point in the season, Cub fans were generally deliriously happy with the team's prospects of making the playoffs (albeit most likely through a wildcard spot), and even having a chance to go to the World Series.
Now at the same point of the 2017 season, the Cubs are in second place, just 2.5 games out of first in their division. Winning the division would give them a better shot at advancing in the playoffs than did singe wildcard "play-in" game in 2015, where anything can happen to change the outcome of that lone game.
Yet it seems as though many Cub fans are down about this season. Granted, the 2017 team has not played nearly as well as the 2016 team did, but the truth is that throughout Major League Baseball history, only a very, very small percentage of teams played as well as (i.e., played to a better record than) the 2016 Chicago Cubs.
2016 was a magical season for many reasons. The Cubs got a lot of good breaks. Other then the nearly season-long injury to Kyle Schwarber and the several weeks that Dexter Fowler was out with a mid-season injury, there really was no significant amount of time lost to injury by the key players. Most teams will not have seasons that injury-free, and also will not have a season where a team gets so many other breaks that go predominantly in that team's favor.
So here in 2017, the Cubs have not thus far had the same type of magical season. Simply looking at things injury-wise, we can see that three key players--Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Hendricks--have all been on the disabled list at the same time. Three regulars on the DL at once is generally going to be a blow to any ball club.
Breaks have been going against the Cubs more in 2017 than they did in 2016. For instance, while Schwarber's hitting woes and subsequent demotion have been caused by many things, my observation is that many of his problems began when he was victimized numerous times by bad calls on balls and strikes. He has a great batting eye, and a few too many pitches that were actually out of the strike zone were called strikes on him. The natural consequence of this would be for him to lose confidence in his batting eye and expand his strike zone. Then when things start to go wrong because of those consequences, the natural tendency is to start pressing, and that brings about even more bad results.
The 2017 Cubs are not the same team as were the 2016 Cubs. The 2017 Cubs especially miss Fowler, David Ross, and Aroldis Chapman. Albert Almora Jr. and John Jay do not bring as much to the team as Fowler did. The recently departed Miguel Montero did not bring as much to the team as a backup catcher and clubhouse leader as Ross did. Wade Davis does not bring as much spark to the closer's role as Chapman did.
And yet, here the 2017 Cubs stand at just 2.5 games out of the division lead just past the half-way point of the season. I hope that people will take a step back and remember just how special the 2016 season was for the Chicago Cubs, and just how unusual it was for any team--including the Cubs--to do as well during the regular season as did the 2016 Cubs.
Then take time to remember that 2017 is an entirely different season, and had it not been for the magical year of 2016, Cub fans would be very happy to see their team only 2.5 games out of first place at this point in the season, and very hopeful that a division championship (and hopefully a playoff run leading to a World Championship) would be in the offing.
There's still a lot of baseball left to be played in 2017. Let's enjoy it.
